Crude Oil: On the bubbling week that has past

Commodity Online
This week was a bumpy one for oil markets as Brent traded between a range of USD107/bbl and USD117/bbl in rapid fashion. Markets were buffeted by speculation that the US would release SPR crude then by comments signaling that Saudi Arabia had increased oil production to 10 million bbl/day?eyeing USD100/bbl as the ideal price. While the White House refuted speculation that it had ordered an SPR release, it reiterated that ?all options (were) on the table to deal with disruptions, if necessary.?

A Saudi production hike to 10 mln bbl/day this month would note a modest increase from the 9.9 mln bbl/day the kingdom pumped on average in August, according to IEA data. Saudi crude availability should improve from this month with the end of peak summer demand for direct-burn crude for power generation.

The kingdom unexpectedly burned record volumes of crude in June and July for power use as natural gas supplies disappointed. Nearly 60% of Saudi power generation is sourced from crude oil, according to the IEA.

That?s far greater than the Middle East as a whole, which sources about 35% of its power from crude burn, and certainly high compared to the global average of just 7%.

While higher Saudi production is welcomed by politicians in consuming countries hoping for lower prices, it?s worth noting that Saudi spare capacity remains constrained, which is a worrying point for the bulls in the market.

Saudi spare capacity has held below 2 mln bbl/day since February. Although not the dire levels seen in the middle of the last decade, the cushion to cope with supply shortfalls looks uncomfortably thin, especially in light of heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Africa.

North Sea supply issues have returned to haunt the market with the deferrals of four October cargoes of Forties crude, which are part of the grades that make up the Brent crude oil benchmark. Consequently, this has provided strength to the Brent complex, including spreads. This also serves as a reminder that geopolitics aren?t the only source of supply worry. (Courtesy: Deutsche Bank)

Source: http://www.commodityonline.com/news/crude-oil-on-the-bubbling-week-that-has-past-50478-3-50479.html

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